TL;DR

• Access-broker standardization (60–75%): RMM footholds, reverse tunnels, scripted reseeding after eviction.
• Copycat proliferation (55–70%): Public exploit + AV-path execution abused across Triofox-like admin UIs.
• Identity pivot (40–55%): Local admin → domain groups, LSA/DPAPI harvest, scheduled rebuild of RMM.
• Tunnel obfuscation (25–35%): Shift to relay-style egress on 443; note 8443 only if supported by your own telemetry.

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Ground Truth

• Initial access: Host-header localhost bypass to Triofox setup; actor creates native admin (CVE-2025-12480).
• Privilege/exec: AV engine path re‑pointed to attacker script → SYSTEM execution via UI.
• Post-ex: Zoho UEMS/Assist, AnyDesk; RDP over SSH with plink/putty (often renamed: sihosts.exe, silcon.exe), execution from C:\Windows\appcompat\ / C:\Windows\Temp\.
• Infra: Low-cost VPS; reverse SSH forwarding of 3389 over 443; modest churn.

Attribution Outlook

• Actor of record: UNC6485 — 0.80
  • Overlaps: exact initial access + AV-path abuse, RMM usage, renamed binaries, cheap VPS patterns.
• Comparators (look-alikes, lower confidence):
  • UNC3944 / Scattered Spider — 0.10
    • Overlap: hands-on-keyboard, RMM usage. Missing: SIM-swap/OAuth/helpdesk social-engineering play.
  • FIN12 / UNC1878 — 0.07
    • Overlap: pre-ransomware tradecraft echoes. Missing: exfil/locker staging.
  • Access-broker archetypes — 0.03
    • Overlap: commodity tunnels, resale-ready access. Weak: infra reuse evidence.

Six‑Month Evolution

Access-broker standardization — 60–75%

• Leading indicators: instant RMM install post-setup, admin group adds, scripted reseed tasks after eviction.
• Falsifiers: vendor hardening disables setup path; AV-path writes blocked in UI/API.

Copycat proliferation — 55–70%

• Leading indicators: scanning of Triofox‑like products; pastebin/playbook reuse; GitHub PoCs for AV‑runner abuse.
• Falsifiers: rapid patch uptake; UI changes removing risky path controls.
• Note: CentreStack adjacency is speculative unless explicitly sourced—treat as hypothesis.

Identity/privilege pivot — 40–55%

• Leading indicators: local→domain group changes, password resets, LSA/DPAPI artifact creation; scheduled tasks/services to rebuild RMM.
• Falsifiers: EDR blocks credential materialization from Triofox/IIS lineage; AD monitoring flags are quiet.

Tunnel obfuscation — 25–35%

• Leading indicators: relay use (cloudflared/ngrok‑like), cert churn, 443‑only egress; JA3/ALPN shifts.
• Falsifiers: egress filtering + TLS/JA3 anomaly controls catching relays; SSRF/relay blocks at perimeter.

AV/execution‑hook generalization — 30–45%

• Leading indicators: abuse of other security‑tool “scan/repair/update” runners for SYSTEM execution via admin UIs.
• Falsifiers: vendors enforce signed‑path allowlists and isolate service accounts.

What Moves the Forecast

• Up‑shift to ransomware track (+15–25% FIN12‑like): discovery of exfil scaffolding, lockers staged, domain‑wide GPO edits.
• Tilt toward UNC3944 (+10–20%): SIM‑swap/helpdesk/OAuth abuse; cloud console pivots.

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