forecasts
COLDRIVER’s Next Move
COLDRIVER went from LOSTKEYS to a full “ROBOT” chain and ClickFix tricks—then started poking linked-device flows. We put 75% on a truly new family or access vector within 12 months.
Latest
weekly
Signals Weekly: Devices Under Siege- SNMP Rootkits, F5 Fallout
SNMP rootkits on Cisco (CVE-2025-20352) 🎛️, F5 source-code heist + CISA ED 26-01 🚨, and 175 MS CVEs 📅. Pick your poison: harden SNMP or inventory+patch BIG-IP today.
storm-2603
Storm-2657 Watch: Does Workday mark the start — or just the first stop?
Workday was the first stop, not the destination. We’re at 62% odds it hits another payroll stack by 2026-04-17. Harden all the paydoors, not just the pretty one.
cl0p
CL0P/FIN11 Go In-Memory on Oracle EBS — The Extortion Comes Later
Oracle EBS got in-memory Java loaders, not lockerware. Patch CVE-2025-61882, lock egress, hunt TemplatePreviewPG with TMP|DEF + XSL-TEXT|XML. Extortion rides in via “pubstorm.”
zero-day
Signals Weekly: Zero-Days, Hijacked Payrolls & a Crypto Kingpin
This Week's Threat Intel Pulse: Oracle EBS zero-day exploited before patches dropped, Storm-1175 abuses GoAnywhere MFT, payroll hijackers hit US universities, ransomware crews weaponize Velociraptor, and a $15B Southeast Asian scam network faces global sanctions.
ta558
TA558 2026: The Quiet Upgrade
Which scenario will best describe TA558’s (aka RevengeHotels) evolution by June 30, 2026?
forecasts
By Dec 31, 2025, will a reputable primary source (Oracle, CISA, Mandiant/MSTIC, affected org’s SEC 8-K/IR blog) confirm at least one breach where CVE-2025-61882 was the initial access vector?
Oracle EBS zero-day (CVE-2025-61882): OOB patch, KEV-listed, exec extortion emails flying. We’re at 76% that a primary source names it as initial access by 12/31. Raise or fade? 🧨🧭
china
Will RedNovember be publicly reported to exploit at least one zero-day vulnerability in 2026?
RedNovember likely stays fast-follow on edge devices using N-days and public PoCs, not 0-days. China-nexus peers show willingness to burn edge 0-days, so a pivot is plausible but not base case...
unc5221
By Dec 31, 2025, will UNC5221 be publicly linked to exploiting at least one new zero-day?
Question: By Dec 31, 2025, will UNC5221 be publicly linked to exploiting at least one new zero-day in a non-Ivanti edge platform (e.g., VMware vCenter/ESXi, Citrix NetScaler, F5, Palo Alto, Fortinet)?
void-proxy
VoidProxy: AitM Phishing-as-a-Service Quietly Bypasses MFA at Scale
VoidProxy is reshaping the phishing landscape, enabling adversaries to bypass MFA and hijack enterprise cloud sessions with minimal technical skill. Its rapid adoption, use of trusted email providers, and evasive infrastructure demand urgent, layered defenses—especially for organizations...
c2
Modular C2 Frameworks Quietly Redefine Threat Operations for 2025–2026
Attackers are rapidly shifting to modular, cloud-integrated C2 frameworks—Sliver, Havoc, Mythic, Brute Ratel C4, and Cobalt Strike—blurring lines between APT and cybercrime. These tools’ stealth, automation, and cloud API abuse are outpacing legacy detection, demanding urgent defensive adaptation.
geopolitics
Blended Geopolitical-Cyber Intelligence: Financial Sector’s Quiet Shift
Financial institutions are quietly overhauling cyber defenses, blending geopolitical risk with threat intelligence to counter state-sponsored attacks and regulatory pressure. This shift is driving new investments in automation, incident response, and sector-wide collaboration..