Will RedNovember be publicly reported to exploit at least one zero-day vulnerability in 2026? Updated 2025-11-06
We’re at 29% that RedNovember will be publicly reported exploiting at least one zero‑day in 2026 under strict timing and attribution rules. The hinge is whether the group escalates beyond PoC‑driven N‑day edge exploits and whether attribution survives rebranding.
Executive Overview
Our original forecast suggested a 30% chance heading into 2026. Below is an update to this forecast. Cause- what good is forecasting if you don't update them?
Forecast Question
Question: Will RedNovember be publicly reported to exploit at least one zero-day vulnerability in 2026?
Resolution
We’re at 29% that RedNovember will be publicly reported exploiting at least one zero‑day in 2026 under strict timing and attribution rules. The hinge is whether the group escalates beyond PoC‑driven N‑day edge exploits and whether attribution survives rebranding. Why it matters: government, defense industrial base, telecom, and large enterprises relying on edge VPN/firewall gateways face elevated stealth‑access risk. Concrete watch action: instrument edge appliances for file‑integrity and config diffs; alert on pre‑advisory anomalous CGI/API modifications and outbound tunnels from VPN gateways.
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Forecast Card
- Resolution Criteria: Yes if: (a) a report published in 2026 by a reputable vendor/government (Google Threat Intelligence/Mandiant, Microsoft Threat Intelligence, Palo Alto Networks Unit 42, Cisco Talos, Broadcom Symantec, Volexity, CISA/NSA/UK NCSC) attributes exploitation by RedNovember or a rebrand/alias with evidenced lineage (≥2 of: infrastructure overlaps, ≥80% code similarity, or explicit cross‑vendor mapping), and (b) the exploitation event itself occurred during 2026, and (c) that exploitation preceded both public disclosure and patch availability, anchored as: Public disclosure = earliest timestamp of either the vendor’s first public advisory/PSIRT post or the CVE publish time; Patch availability = vendor’s first fix/patch release time (mitigations/workarounds do not count). No otherwise. Timestamps adjudicated in America/New_York.
- Horizon: 2026-12-31 23:59 America/New_York
- Probability (Now): 29% | Log-odds: -0.90
- Confidence in Inputs: Medium
- Base Rate: 25% (1/4) from actor-level reference class in 2024-01-01 to 2025-10-31: actors = {UNC5221, Volt Typhoon, BlackTech, RedNovember}. Counting rules: count an actor once if there is public confirmation by a named vendor/government that the actor exploited ≥1 zero‑day before both public disclosure and patch availability. Numerator evidence: UNC5221 zero‑day exploitation of Ivanti (CVE-2025-0282) beginning mid‑Dec 2024, with public confirmation and timeline details (Mandiant/GTI) and a CISA/FBI advisory confirming zero‑day exploitation of chained Ivanti vulnerabilities in 2024–2025.
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Top Drivers
- RedNovember’s PoC-first N‑day edge tradecraft (Pantegana/SparkRAT) remains the modal pattern in 2024–2025 reporting.
- PRC espionage clusters have burned edge 0‑days recently; capability exists within the ecosystem (e.g., Ivanti ICS).
- Defender hardening on edge appliances raises the payoff for 0‑day use in priority operations.
- Rebrand/splintering risks reduce likelihood of clear public confirmation meeting the bar despite potential use.
