Early Look: AlphaHunt Forecasting

We’re giving our subscribers a look at something new: AlphaHunt’s early-stage, next-generation forecasting technology.

Most intel tools tell you what already happened. Forecasting asks a harder, more valuable question: what’s likely to happen next, and how should we prepare? We’re experimenting with structured probability models that connect threat intelligence to incident response. Think of it as a way to quantify uncertainty before the attacker makes their next move.

Why it matters for security teams

• Move left of boom – Instead of reacting to the breach or extortion email, teams get an evidence-based probability of escalation. That helps decide whether to harden defenses now or stage response playbooks in advance.

• Translate noise into action – Forecasts take vague “chatter” or scattered reporting and turn it into calibrated odds with defined resolution criteria. That means you can brief leadership with confidence, not hand-waving.

• Stress test readiness – Pairing forecast scenarios with your incident response plan highlights blind spots. If one scenario says “55% odds on a new non-Ivanti edge 0-day by Dec 31...” the next question is: are we ready for that exact play?

This is early stage work.

You’ll see a forecast card in this issue that show how I'm approaching the problem: clear questions, base rates, scenarios, and signals to watch.

I'm asking you for feedback. Is this useful in your daily workflow? What kinds of forecasts would help you brief your SOC, IR team, or leadership? Should we track adversary infrastructure launches, vulnerability weaponization, law-enforcement takedowns?

AlphaHunt’s mission is to make threat intelligence more actionable, measurable, and forward-looking. Forecasting is one piece of that puzzle. If it resonates, expect to see it become a regular feature in our platform.

Let me know what you think— I'm listening.

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Executive Overview

Likelihood is 62% that Storm-2657 expands beyond Workday within six months. BEC/payroll crews reuse AiTM/MFA-bypass across SaaS, and recent research shows payroll fraud via SAP SuccessFactors, indicating cross-platform feasibility. Watch for Microsoft/vendor attributions tying Storm-2657 to ADP/UKG/Oracle/SAP, and for phishing-resistant MFA defaults on HR SaaS as a dampener. Law-enforcement action could depress activity; otherwise, persistence is typical.

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Forecast Card

• Question: By 2026-04-17, will Storm-2657 be publicly reported targeting at least one additional HR/payroll SaaS platform besides Workday (e.g., ADP, UKG, Oracle HCM, SAP SuccessFactors)?
• Resolution Criteria: Yes if a reputable source explicitly attributes Storm-2657 (or a Microsoft-renamed/merged alias clearly mapped to Storm-2657) to attempts or compromises against a named non-Workday HR/payroll SaaS. Reputable source = Microsoft Threat Intelligence; CISA/FBI; or major security vendors with primary evidence (e.g., ReliaQuest, Proofpoint, Cisco Talos, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Unit 42), or top-tier news directly relaying those primaries. “Targeting” counts if reports show actor-specific infrastructure/lures or audit logs aimed at that SaaS (e.g., phish pages/workflows named for ADP/UKG/Oracle/SAP), or confirmed unauthorized access. Ambiguous or unlabeled activity does not count.
• Horizon: 2026-04-17 (America/New_York)
• Probability (Now): 62% | Log-odds: 0.489 | LR (from 55%): ×1.34 | 90% CI: 45–75%
• Confidence in Inputs: Medium
• Base Rate: ~55% from financially motivated BEC/payroll diversion crews expanding across SaaS and industries; see IC3 BEC prevalence and recent vendor reports (Microsoft on Workday; ReliaQuest on SAP SuccessFactors).

Top Drivers

• Financial motive; proven payroll diversion monetization.
• AiTM/MFA-bypass portability across SaaS workflows.
• Large install base of HR SaaS; uneven phishing-resistant MFA enforcement.
• Recent non-Workday payroll portal targeting (SAP SuccessFactors) evidences cross-platform viability.
• Public spotlight may disrupt, but BEC actors typically persist/adapt.

Scenarios

• Cross-platform expansion publicly reported (Yes): 62%
• Focus remains on Workday; no new platform confirmed (No): 23%
• Disruption or LE pressure leads to dormancy; no new report (No): 10%
• Expansion occurs but label changes without clear mapping (No by criteria): 5%

Signals

▲ Microsoft or major vendor attributes Storm-2657 to ADP/UKG/Oracle/SAP targets
▲ New AiTM kits or OAuth/token-theft TTPs linked to Storm-2657 targeting non-Workday HR SaaS
▲ Victimology broadens beyond higher ed (e.g., manufacturing, healthcare, gov)
▼ CISA/FBI advisory plus arrests/takedowns tied to this cluster
▼ Default, enforced phishing-resistant MFA on major HR SaaS; stronger SSO policies

Appendix

References

• https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2025/10/09/investigating-targeted-payroll-pirate-attacks-affecting-us-universities/
• https://reliaquest.com/blog/threat-spotlight-payroll-fraud-attackers-stealing-paychecks-seo-poisoning/
• https://www.ic3.gov/AnnualReport/Reports/2024_IC3Report.pdf
• https://blogs.oracle.com/cloud-infrastructure/post/fusion-apps-passwordless-fido-authentication-iam

AlphaHunt

Stop doomscrolling, start decisioning. We chewed through the muck so your team doesn’t have to. → Subscribe! • Forward to your on-call lead.

(Have feedback? Did something resonate with you? Did something annoy you? Just hit reply! :))

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