forecasts
Will Akira trigger a week-long hospital disruption by end of 2026?
20% odds Akira triggers a 7-day ambulance diversion at a 10+ hospital system by end of 2026. 🚑 Still feeling “low risk”?
Latest
weekly
SIGNALS WEEKLY: The Quiet Shift- When Intrusions Start Thinking for Themselves
A Chinese crew let a jailbroken AI run most of the intrusion while FortiWeb + Firebox burn in KEV and a contractor leak drops the playbook.
cl0p
After LockBit and BlackCat, Is Cl0p Really Next in Line?
LockBit got the Operation Cronos takedown. BlackCat imploded. Cl0p just logged a record leak month—and shows no sign of slowing. By 2026, do we really keep Cl0p dark for 90+ days… or just get Cl0p v2 with a fresh logo?
unc6485
Triofox Exploitation Cluster (UNC6485): Six-Month Outlook, Copycat Risk, and What to Watch
UNC6485 is farming Triofox: Host: localhost → setup → mint admin → AV path = your script → SYSTEM → RMM + reverse RDP/443. Patch to 16.7.10368.56560 now. Copycats next. 🔥🛡️
weekly
SIGNALS WEEKLY: Keys & Gates — Windows kernel EoP; Cisco RA VPN reloads
Keys. Gates. Windows. Actively exploited Win kernel EoP ✅ (CVE-2025-62215). Cisco RA-VPN bugs can reload unpatched edges. LANDFALL used Samsung’s image bug (CVE-2025-21042). Which breaks first in your shop?
china
Typhoon by Consent: Quiet, Durable, Everywhere
One “Allow” → tenant-wide weather event. 🌀 AI agent phish wraps the consent flow, device-code keeps churning, and Typhoon rides “good” U.S. infra. Kill list: user consent, device-code, or EWS app perms—what’s first?
forecasts
Will RedNovember be publicly reported to exploit at least one zero-day vulnerability in 2026? Updated 2025-11-06
We’re at 29% that RedNovember will be publicly reported exploiting at least one zero‑day in 2026 under strict timing and attribution rules. The hinge is whether the group escalates beyond PoC‑driven N‑day edge exploits and whether attribution survives rebranding.
weekly
Signals Weekly: The Shortcut That Opened Doors in Europe
A Windows .LNK just became an actual door key. UNC6384 → PlugX at EU diplomats. CISA drops 2 new KEV vulns (CentreStack/Triofox & CWP) + 5 ICS advisories. Patch what you can, isolate what you can’t.
unc5221
Will UNC5221 pop a fresh zero-day before Dec 31? Updated!
UNC5221 is an edge-focused PRC espionage actor repeatedly tied to zero-days (Ivanti 2023–2025; prior NetScaler). Edge products remained a major zero-day target in 2024. But public attributions typically lag exploitation by weeks, and the window is short...
romance-scam
Kill the Lights, Fire Up Starlink: Scam Compounds Slide South
Thailand pulled the plug. The grift brought generators + Starlink. Shift north→south (Shwe Kokko/Myawaddy; Tachileik/Mae Sai). Squeeze OTC cash-outs + first-funding friction, or watch it respawn.
weekly
Signals Weekly: Active WSUS Exploits and Ransomware Shifts
WSUS RCE is live—patch OOB now + watch 8530/8531. Payments fell to 23% in Q3 as crews pivot to insider bribes; Qilin doubles down on ESXi + EDR tamper.
cl0p
Cl0p’s Leak Sites: 20% Chance They Go Dark by Apr 22, 2026
Forecast: 20% chance Cl0p’s leak sites go dark by Apr 22, 2026. Needs a seizure banner or ≥14 days down w/ LE attribution. Cronos showed it’s doable; mirrors make it brutal.