Deepfake BEC & Payment Diversion: The Q1 2026 Fraud PIR You Can’t Defer
Deepfake BEC = the same old fraud… with a way better script. 🎭💸 If payroll/AP changes can happen on “sounds right,” you’re funding someone’s Q1 bonus.
TL;DR
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PIRs keep security focused on the few threat questions that materially change decisions, reducing noise and enabling faster, defensible prioritization with limited resources.
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PIR #1: Track ransomware/extortion pathways tied to KEV exploitation + identity compromise; fastest route to enterprise-scale disruption.
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PIR #2: Prioritize AI-accelerated social engineering (BEC/payment diversion, deepfake-enabled impersonation); highest fraud ROI for adversaries.
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PIR #3: Treat software/supplier concentration and supply chain compromise as a first-order risk driver (SaaS, third parties, poisoned updates).
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What is a PIR?
PIRs (Priority Intelligence Requirements) matter because they turn “we should pay attention to threats” into a small set of answerable questions that directly drive better security
decisions.
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They focus limited time and budget on what changes risk most. Instead of tracking everything, you track what would materially change priorities (patching, controls, vendor decisions).
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They improve speed and consistency in decisions. PIRs define what you need to know before acting, reducing ad hoc judgment during incidents.
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They align security with business impact. A good PIR ties threats to outcomes (ransomware downtime, payment fraud loss, student data exposure), making prioritization
defensible. -
They make detection and response measurable. PIRs translate into concrete collection needs (logs, telemetry, vendor signals) and success criteria (time-to-detect, exposure
reduction). -
They reduce noise. PIRs help you say “no” to low-value alerts, reporting, and threat feeds that don’t affect your environment.
Ranked PIRs
| Rank | PIR | Why it matters across the 3 sectors | Probability of adoption (Q1 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ransomware + data extortion initial access (KEV + identity) | Extortion/ransomware is a dominant driver of motivated incidents; education is a known preference; KEV exploitation keeps compressing time-to-compromise. | 0.85 |
| 2 | AI-enabled social engineering and payment fraud | Cyber-enabled fraud is scaling; GenAI increases realism and throughput (phishing/vishing/deepfake), directly impacting finance and payroll/AP in all sectors. | 0.75 |
| 3 | Supply chain & shared-service systemic risk (vendors, SaaS, updates, open source) | Ecosystem interdependencies and SBOM-driven governance pressures increase; a single supplier compromise can cascade across many orgs. | 0.65 |
PIR #1 — Ransomware + data extortion initial access (KEV + identity)
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Intelligence requirement: Identify which internet-facing assets and identity paths are most likely to be used for initial access (KEV CVEs, VPNs, hypervisors, backup
systems). -
What to collect/answer in Q1:
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Which KEV entries map to our exposed perimeter and remote access stack, and which are being linked to ransomware activity?
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Which identity abuse patterns (credential stuffing, password spraying, token theft) are most prevalent in our environment and vendors?
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PIR #2 — AI-enabled social engineering and payment fraud
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Intelligence requirement: Determine the top fraud playbooks targeting finance operations (wire diversion, invoice manipulation, payroll reroute), and which roles/workflows
are most exploitable. -
What to collect/answer in Q1:
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Which business processes can be coerced without technical compromise (approvals, vendor onboarding, payment changes)?
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Where are “trust signals” weakest (voice calls, SMS, helpdesk, executive impersonation)?
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PIR #3 — Supply chain & shared-service systemic risk
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Intelligence requirement: Maintain a current view of critical dependencies (SaaS, managed services, key libraries) and supplier compromise signals that could create
correlated failure. -
What to collect/answer in Q1:
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Which vendors/components represent single points of failure, and what evidence exists of supply chain targeting relevant to them?
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Where do we lack SBOM/visibility into transitive dependencies and update channels?
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