forecasts

AI Agents as Regulated C2: Will Anyone Be Forced to Act?

AI just ran most of an espionage op, and regulators are still in “interesting case study” mode. 😏 We’re forecasting: 55% odds that by 2026, someone will force signed AI connectors + agent logs by default.

Wes

Wes

— 6 min read
AI Agents as Regulated C2: Will Anyone Be Forced to Act?
Everyone loves one-click AI agents… until someone asks who signed them and where the logs went.

Strategic Overview

Question

By 31 December 2026, will at least one major regulator or hyperscale SaaS/identity platform (e.g., SEC, FTC, EU DSA/DORA regulator, Microsoft, Google, AWS, Okta) publish binding requirements or default technical controls (not just guidance) that explicitly:

  • treat AI agents/connectors as high-risk integration points, and
  • require signed/attested connectors and auditable agent logs,
    while citing an AI-orchestrated campaign like GTG-1002/Anthropic as part of the justification?

Forecast

I estimate a 55% chance that by end‑2026, at least one major regulator or hyperscale SaaS/identity provider will introduce binding or default‑on controls that:

  • explicitly classify AI agents/connectors as high‑risk integration points
  • require signed/attested connectors and auditable agent‑action logs
  • explicitly cite an AI‑orchestrated intrusion—such as Anthropic’s GTG‑1002 or a similarly described “AI‑agent‑led” or “AI‑orchestrated” campaign—as part of the rationale.

The narrowness of this conjunction keeps the probability modestly above, not far from, 50%. The most likely path is a major platform productizing default AI‑agent governance and using GTG‑1002‑style narratives in their justification.

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