Executive Overview

Question: By 31 December 2026, will a major law‑enforcement coalition (e.g., US/EU partners) publicly announce an operation that results in sustained disruption of Cl0p’s core infrastructure — such as seizure of primary leak sites or key command infrastructure for ≥90 consecutive days, or public charges/arrests that CTI vendors assess as materially degrading Cl0p operations?

Forecast: I estimate a 30% chance that, by end‑2026, a US/EU‑style coalition will announce a Hive/LockBit‑grade operation that clearly meets the objective disruption criteria for Cl0p (infrastructure seized ≥90 days or ≥80% activity drop). Hive and LockBit show that such actions are feasible against top‑tier gangs, and Cl0p’s mass‑exploitation history raises its priority. But its likely Russian sanctuary, proven resilience, and law‑enforcement bandwidth constraints keep the odds below 50%. Watch for new large Cl0p campaigns and explicit multi‑agency signaling.

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Forecast Card

Question

By 31 December 2026, will a major law‑enforcement coalition (e.g., US/EU partners) publicly announce an operation that results in sustained disruption of Cl0p’s core infrastructure — such as seizure of primary leak sites or key command infrastructure for ≥90 consecutive days, or public charges/arrests that CTI vendors assess as materially degrading Cl0p operations?

Resolution Criteria

• Actors (coalition requirement)

  • At least two of the following must be formally associated with the same named operation in public releases:
    • U.S. DOJ, FBI, Secret Service, or CISA
    • Europol and/or Eurojust
    • National LE/judicial bodies of EU or Five Eyes states (e.g., NCA/UK, BKA/DE, Police Nationale/FR, RCMP/CA, AFP/AU).
  • A single‑country operation (e.g., only DOJ/FBI or only NCA) does not qualify.

• Target identification

  • The public material (press release(s), LE‑branded seizure banner, or equivalent) must:
    • Explicitly name “Cl0p/Clop”; or
    • Name a rebrand where at least two of the specified CTI sources (below) explicitly attribute it to Cl0p’s core operators in written reporting.

• Path A – Infrastructure seizure/takedown (objective)

  • Qualifies as YES if:
    1. LE publicly claims to have seized or taken control of one or more primary Cl0p leak/extortion sites or core admin/command infrastructure, where:
       • “Primary leak/extortion site” = any Tor/clearweb site that:
         • Has been used to list ≥20 distinct Cl0p victims in total, and
         • Has been tracked as a Cl0p site by at least one of: ecrime.ch, Ransomware.live, or Halcyon’s “Power Rankings / top ransomware groups” reporting.
    2. Those assets either:
       • Display an LE seizure/operation banner, or
       • Are consistently unreachable / non‑resolving.
    3. Condition (2) holds for ≥90 consecutive days after the operation announcement, as confirmed by at least two of:
       • ecrime.ch, Ransomware.live, S‑RM, Halcyon, or another named CTI vendor from the list below that documents leak‑site availability.

• Path B – Arrests/charges that materially degrade operations (objective)

  • Qualifies as YES if:
    1. LE announces indictments and/or arrests explicitly tied to core Cl0p operators or admins (not merely low‑level money mules), and
    2. Within 30 days of the announcement, at least two CTI sources from the list below publish assessments describing the operation as a major, significant, or material blow to Cl0p (language to that effect), and
    3. Measured activity drop:
       • Define baseline as the mean monthly count of distinct Cl0p victims posted on any Cl0p‑attributed leak site over the six full calendar months before the announcement, using at least one of: ecrime.ch, Ransomware.live, or S‑RM/equivalent leak‑site statistics.
       • For the three full calendar months beginning after the announcement month, the mean monthly victim count must be ≤20% of baseline (i.e., ≥80% reduction), per at least one of those trackers.

• Recognized CTI sources (for attribution & impact assessments)

  • At least two of: Google Threat Intelligence/Mandiant, Microsoft Threat Intelligence, CrowdStrike, Recorded Future, Secureworks, SentinelOne, Trend Micro, Sophos, Emsisoft, Kaspersky, Check Point, Trellix, Halcyon, S‑RM, Chainalysis, or Coveware; or
  • One from the above list plus one of ecrime.ch or Ransomware.live for quantitative activity data.

  Exclusions / “No” cases

  • No if by 2026‑12‑31 23:59:59 ET:
    • No public coalition operation as defined above has been announced; or
    • Operations are single‑jurisdiction only; or
    • Disruption of leak/admin infrastructure is <90 consecutive days; or
    • Activity reduction is <80% or lasts <90 days; or
    • Impact is primarily sanctions, advisories, or asset seizures without meeting Path A or B conditions.

• Horizon: 31 December 2026

• Probability (Now): 30% | Log-odds: -0.85

• Confidence in Inputs: Medium (strong historical data on LE ransomware ops; limited visibility into ongoing classified investigations against Cl0p)

Base Rate

~30% — among the most prominent ransomware families 2022–2024, roughly 3–4 (Hive, ALPHV/BlackCat, LockBit, Ragnar Locker) experienced multinational operations that seized core infrastructure and/or distributed decryptors and filed cross‑border charges, per DOJ and Europol releases and consolidated CTI reporting.[^1][2][^3]

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